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El-Sheikh, A and Pryke, S D (2010) Network gaps and project success. Construction Management and Economics, 28(12), 17.
Kokkaew, N and Chiara, N (2010) Modelling completion risk using stochastic critical path-envelope method: a BOT highway project application. Construction Management and Economics, 28(12), 54.
- Type: Journal Article
- Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation; build-operate-transfer; risk analysis; project scheduling; envelope method
- ISBN/ISSN: 0144-6193
- URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2010.521755
- Abstract:
In integrated project delivery methods such as build-operate-transfer (BOT), a thorough financial risk analysis model should incorporate completion risk analysis into operation risk analysis as the timing of financial events such as refinancing and debt servicing depend on the construction completion date. During construction, project managers always have opportunities to react to negative events and to take corrective actions whenever possible to recover late-running schedules. These opportunities to react are ‘real options’ embedded in the construction process. However, current models of completion risk analysis ignore this feature of project managers. A reliable construction completion risk model for project feasibility studies should capture a manager's option to react to unforeseen, negative events. A novel approach for modelling construction completion risk analysis is developed by combining stochastic critical path method with the envelope method (SCP-EM). The SCP-EM approach can model the option-like feature of management feedback reactions in a straightforward fashion. The proposed approach, if applied correctly during the project feasibility study stage, enhances the project finance risk model by helping analysts properly evaluate financial risk arising from completion delay.
Loudoun, R J (2010) Injuries sustained by young males in construction during day and night work. Construction Management and Economics, 28(12), 20.
Oo, B-L, Drew, D S and Runeson, G (2010) Competitor analysis in construction bidding. Construction Management and Economics, 28(12), 9.
Saka, N and Lowe, J G (2010) The impact of the petroleum sector on the output of the Nigerian construction sector. Construction Management and Economics, 28(12), 12.
Wang, Y, Goodrum, P M, Haas, C, Glover, R and Vazari, S (2010) Analysis of the benefits and costs of construction craft training in the United States based on expert perceptions and industry data. Construction Management and Economics, 28(12), 85.
Wong, J M W and Ng, S T (2010) Forecasting construction tender price index in Hong Kong using vector error correction model. Construction Management and Economics, 28(12), 68.
Zhang, X, Skitmore, M, Wu, Y and Ye, K (2010) A regional construction R&D evaluation system for China. Construction Management and Economics, 28(12), 300.
Zou, P X W and Li, J (2010) Risk identification and assessment in subway projects: case study of Nanjing Subway Line 2. Construction Management and Economics, 28(12), 38.